🌾 Daily Market Update – June 30, 2025

📊 Grain Prices Open Mixed as Markets Balance Weather and Trade Signals

Soybeans find strength on strong exports and macro optimism, while corn dips under the weight of bearish positioning and a heavy supply outlook.

☀️ Weather Highlights – Rain in the East, Stress Building in the West

🌎 Global Watch: Delays in Brazil, Heat in Europe

• Brazil: Safrinha corn harvest remains slow, under 20% complete—but a record crop still looms.

• Black Sea: Mostly favorable, but eastern Ukraine and southern Russia show signs of dryness.

• Europe: Heat and erratic showers could affect wheat finishing stages.

🇺🇸 U.S. Forecast Turns Hot and Dry into July

• Dry Pattern Expands: Key growing states are trending drier into the holiday.

• Heat Watch: CropProphet models show temps 2.9°F above normal.

• Rain Uncertainty: Models hint at moisture next week, but confidence is low.

🌽 Corn Belt Outlook: Eastern Rains Miss the Mark

• Dry Spell Persists: Illinois, Southern Iowa, and Indiana are losing topsoil moisture quickly.

• Stress Threat Looms: Subsoil drying could hurt crops entering pollination.

• Market Mood: Weather remains the top influence heading into July.

📍 Local Snapshot – Northeast Kansas

• Conditions: Warm, breezy, and mostly dry. Rain remains limited.

• Crop Update: Wheat harvest nearing completion; corn showing early signs of curling.

• Outlook: Conditions still stable, but signs of stress could build quickly if rain stays scarce.

🌐 Macroeconomic & Market Drivers – Weather, Trade, and Funds Collide

💹 Technical Bounce: Grains Rebound Off Multi-Month Lows

• Corn and Soybeans staged moderate rebounds after last week’s pressure.

• Market support from:

  • Trade optimism

  • Weaker dollar boosting export appeal

  • Strong equity rally improving sentiment

💰 Funds Stay Defensive – Large Short Bets Remain

• Corn: Funds sold 6,000 contracts; still net short 321,000.

• Soybeans: Net sellers of 27,000.

• Wheat: Some buying interest in SRW, with 10,000 contracts added.

📅 USDA on Deck – Acreage & Stocks Reports Drop at 11 AM CST

• Corn: Acreage likely above March; stocks down 7% YoY.

• Soybeans: Acreage expected to rise; stocks projected up 1%—a five-year high.

• Wheat: Stocks could rise 20% amid sluggish exports and large carryover.

• Market Impact: Expect volatility at midday as traders digest surprises.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Watch – Harvest Pace Still Lags, But Record Crop Intact

• Progress: Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% a year ago.

• Delays: Wet planting season has kept moisture levels high.

• Outlook: Despite setbacks, Brazil remains on track for a record 103.2 MMT safrinha crop.

🏛️ Macro Markets – Wall Street Rally Lifts Commodity Sentiment

• Stock Market: S&P 500 hits a record high at 6,173, with broad gains in the Dow and Nasdaq.

• Outlook Shift: Traders warming up to Trump’s evolving trade tone.

• Fed Moves: Rate cut speculation adds fuel to bullish equity momentum.

🌱 Export Action – Mexico Buys New-Crop U.S. Soybeans

• USDA Flash Sale: 119,746 MT (~4 million bushels) booked for 2024/25.

• Commitments: Soybean exports now up 11% YoY.

🔭 What’s Next – All Eyes on USDA and the Sky

• USDA reports will set today’s tone—watch for acreage or stocks surprises.

• Weather will take center stage through pollination.

• China trade headlines and updated rainfall models could shift momentum post-July 4.

🌟 Ag Fun Fact of the Day

The U.S. agriculture industry contributes over $1.4 trillion to the national economy each year and supports more than 22 million jobs—that’s about 1 in every 10 U.S. jobs connected to farming, food processing, transportation, or retail.