🌾 Daily Market Update – July 3, 2025

📊 Grain Market Snapshot

Grains rallied ahead of the long weekend on trade optimism, tightening global supply expectations, and lingering weather concerns.

🌍 Global Weather Watch: Crops Under Pressure

🇨🇳 China:
Relentless heat and drought are hitting wheat hard, with some regions seeing yield losses of up to 50%. Soybeans and corn planting are also struggling, raising concerns over feed grain supply into late 2025.

🇪🇺 Europe:
Southern Europe faces another heatwave, with highs well into the triple digits. Spain and France could see durum wheat and barley production slip. Northern Europe remains stable for now.

🇧🇷 Brazil:
Central Brazil is dry — ideal for wrapping up safrinha corn harvest, which is yielding well. Southern areas report some disease pressure, but exports remain on pace for late July.

🌤️ U.S. Weather Outlook: Heat Holds, Rains Shift East

Corn Belt Forecast:

• Near-normal rainfall for the 7-day outlook

• Drier in the central and eastern Corn Belt short-term

• Wetter trend expected in the East during the 8–14 day window

• Temps remain 1–4°F above normal — heat stress remains a factor

📍 Northeast Kansas Update:
Scattered showers earlier this week were helpful, but coverage was limited. Dryland corn is curling in spots, and soybeans are slowing down under continued dryness. Forecasts suggest another dry stretch heading into mid-July.

🛢️ Ethanol Market Snapshot

• Production: 1.08M barrels/day (slightly lower, but seasonally strong)

• Stocks: 24.12M barrels — near record highs

• Margins: Trending higher on firm export demand and fuel blending needs

• Market Response: Muted, as traders weigh production efficiency gains, strong supply outlook, and heavier-than-expected inventories

🌐 Global Trade & Market Drivers

📈 Trade Buzz Lifts Markets
Rumors of upcoming deals with China and India pushed grain and equity markets higher.

• 📊 S&P 500: New record high

• 💻 Nasdaq: Record territory

• 📉 Dow: Slight dip on pre-holiday repositioning

• ⏳ All eyes on the July 9 tariff deadline — markets may move sharply if talks stall

🇺🇸 Trump Visits Iowa Tonight
President Trump speaks at 7:30 p.m. CST at the America250 Kick-Off at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. In a post earlier this week, he hinted at “major ag trade updates.” Traders are watching closely for soybean sale signals or broader trade deals.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Trade Deal Finalized

A new U.S.-Vietnam ag agreement includes:

• ✅ $2B in U.S. ag purchases

• ✅ Tariff-free access for U.S. exports

• ⛔ 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports (40% on transshipped goods)

Takeaway: While not a market mover like a China deal, this provides meaningful support and sets a precedent for more bilateral trade agreements.

🔭 Looking Ahead

• Expect thin volume ahead of the July 4 holiday

• Yield chatter will ramp up after the break

• Friday’s USDA Export Sales will help confirm or challenge recent trade rumors

• Weekend weather models could set the tone for Monday’s open

🎇 Ag Fun Fact of the Day – July 4th Edition

The average American BBQ on the 4th of July includes food from all 50 states — from Iowa corn and Kansas beef to Georgia peaches and California lettuce.
Agriculture fuels the celebration from coast to coast! 🇺🇸🌽🥩🍑

98% of U.S. soybeans are processed domestically.