🌾 Daily Market Update – June 16, 2025

Grain Market Summary

• Corn: Dropped slightly, with market struggling to respond to friendly ethanol and export data. Weather outlooks easing near-term concerns.

• Soybeans: Found strength today on short-covering. Fundamentals remain weak, but traders watching Midwest moisture levels.

• Wheat: HRW surged higher on strong basis, harvest heat, and global supply concerns. SRW followed on technical buying.

🌦️ United States Weather Overview – June 16, 2025

Mixed signals continue as the Eastern Corn Belt benefits from moisture while the West grows dry.

🌽 Corn Belt Conditions

• East (IL, IN, OH): Crop is thriving — frequent light rains, good emergence, mild temps.

• West (IA, NE, MN, SD): Rain has been elusive. Temperatures near 90°F this week may start to impact early stands. Forecast hints at midweek chances, but confidence is low.

🌱 Soybean Planting & Early Growth

• Nearly fully planted; emergence is strong.

• Kansas, Missouri, and parts of Nebraska showing moisture deficits, which could begin to impact ratings by week’s end.

🌾 Wheat Belt Snapshot

• SRW: Harvest underway in IL, MO, IN. Yields slightly above expectations.

• HRW: Accelerating fast across central KS and northern OK. Heat aiding drydown but hurting grain fill in later-planted fields.

• Spring Wheat: ND and MT are trending dry and hot—crop condition ratings could drop again this week.

🐄 Cattle & Pasture

• 20% of cattle still in drought areas. Pasture and range conditions declining in the western Plains and Southwest.

📍 Northeast Kansas Grain Field & Weather Update

• Seneca / Nemaha County:

  • Fields are drying fast. Wheat harvest could begin by midweek.

  • Soybeans look decent but will need rain by Friday to maintain color and growth.

  • Corn is at V6–V8; leaf curl is evident in some sandier soils.

• Southeast Nebraska:

  • Good stands but topsoil drying rapidly.

  • Some spotty storms over the weekend helped isolated areas.

  • Watch for condition score slips if Tuesday’s forecasted rain misses.

📊 Macro News

📅 June WASDE Summary

• Corn: Exports raised 50 mb, old crop ending stocks now 1.365 bb. New crop lowered slightly – mildly bullish.

• Soybeans: No real changes. Carryout slightly up – market took it as neutral to bearish.

• Wheat: Lower global ending stocks and strong U.S. sales add mild support.

🛢️ Crude Oil Surges

• WTI crude rose ~12% following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

• Oil markets rattled amid potential retaliation and shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz.

💵 Dollar Hits Multi-Year Low

• U.S. dollar fell to its lowest since April 2022, fueling speculation of a June 18 Fed rate cut.

• Normally, a weaker dollar would boost U.S. exports, but so far, corn and soybeans haven’t seen a meaningful jump in foreign demand. Traders suspect buyers are still price-sensitive or holding off amid global harvests.

🌿 Biofuel Policy Watch

• EPA is set to release 2026–27 blending targets today.

• Push to raise biodiesel mandates to 5.25B gal faces resistance; market impact will depend on final rule.

📉 Export Sales Weak

• Corn: 98% of USDA forecast is booked, but new crop buying is lagging.

• Soybeans: 2025–26 sales near 18-year lows; no purchases from China yet.

• Wheat: Strong preseason pace, but global competition remains stiff.

⚠️ Immigration Crackdown

• ICE detained over 70 workers in Nebraska meat plant raid.

• Ongoing labor challenges in ag-heavy states; majority of U.S. crop workers are undocumented.

🌽 Fun Fact of the Day

The U.S. is the world’s largest producer of corn, accounting for about one-third of total global output. In fact, over 90 million acres of U.S. farmland is planted to corn each year—more than any other crop.